Productivity regime

With this modelling exercise we evaluated the effects of a fixed fishing pressure on the Western Baltic cod population until the end of the century. With the plots beneath you can find the answers to the first question on the poster:


What implications do differing perceptions of stock productivity have on the future stock development?

You can see in the plot the observed time series, to answer the question please select in the legend (below the plot) the scenarios:

You can add / select the scenarios by simply clicking on the corresponding legend entry. If you want to isolate one scenario double-click on the legend entry.



Depending on the perceived productivity the spawning stock biomass develops differently. The full productivity is based on a stock-recruitment model fitted to the entire time series of data (1985 - 2020), whereas the limited scenario time series only takes into account the data from 2006 onward. According to recent studies the Western Baltic cod stock is locked in a low productivity regime (Möllmann et al. 2021), thus the limited productivity scenario assumes that the stock will be unable to switch back to the previous, higher productivity regime.


To find out about the influence of fishing management scenarios please click on the arrow.

Möllmann, C., Cormon, X., Funk, S., Otto, S.A., Schmidt, J.O., Schwermer, H., Sguotti, C., Voss, R. & Quaas, M. (2021): Tipping point realized in cod fishery. Scientific Reports, 11, 14259 (2021). doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93843-z